empirica Forecasts

The empirica forecasts show the regional demographic trends and their impact on the housing market up to 2045. Three scenarios take into account different migration scenarios for international migration. Along these development paths, the forecasts illustrate which demand trends can be expected in the different housing market regions in Germany. The forecasts are updated once a year to take account of new trends, particularly in foreign migration.

Population and Household Forecast

Immigration from Ukraine in 2022 is already included in the base year 2022 in the updated forecast. In fact, further cyclical immigration is likely to occur in the long term as a result of refugee movements, meaning that a drop in immigration, as depicted in the lower variant, is rather unlikely. In the current forecast, the number of inhabitants will change from around 84.3 million in 2022 to 81 million in the lower variant and 88 million in the upper variant by 2045. As both domestic and international migration are concentrated regionally, the east-west and north-south divide will continue to widen. Even in the upper scenario, many regions will shrink in the long term.

Housing Market Forecast

The empirica demand forecast shows an average annual demand for new construction of around 170,000 flats for the period 2024-27 and around 160,000 in the years 2028-32. From the mid-2030s, demand will rise to around 200,000 units per year. Even with a nationwide decline in the population, demand for new construction will rise again slightly in the 2030s. This is due to growing additional qualitative demand (e.g. hardly any new age-appropriate housing), but also to regional differences in population and household development as well as changes in the demographic structure. In growing regions in particular, demand will increase more strongly than in previous years. In addition, an increasing number of older people can be expected in the long term, which will lead to a higher number of households for a given number of inhabitants.

Purchase Options

Are you interested in data from the empirica housing market forecast 2024? You can obtain the results of our forecast models and many other data bases from empirica regio as access to the empirica regional database (Market Studio  and RESTful API ) or as an individual single order.

If you are interested in a consultation appointment or an individual offer to obtain the forecasts, please contact us by e-mail at info@empirica-regio.de  or under +49 (0) 228 914 89 214.

Methodology

Detailed results and further information on the methodology can be found in empirica paper no. 272, which is available for download on the empirica ag website: