February 3, 2023

empirica Forecasts 2023/2024

With the annual update of the forecasts by empirica and empirica regio, current data on the development of population, households, demand for new buildings and vacancies up to 2035 are now available for all districts.

The war in Ukraine and the resulting refugee movement will lead to a strong increase in the population in Germany. The figures available for 2022 were updated in the new forecast in a separate scenario and added to the three model scenarios. By 2023, the population will have increased by 1.5 additional million persons compared to December 2021. In addition, the population is expected to increase by between 166,000 and 307,000 persons by 2023 due to demographic development and other immigration.

empirica Population Forecast 2023 - Three Scenarios with and without Ukraine in Comparison

The harmonised population forecast based on various official forecasts is the basis for the regional forecasts of household numbers, new construction demand and vacancy rates. The empirica housing market forecast provides an estimate for the additional demand for housing (new construction demand). The new construction required to satisfy new construction demand differs in the various scenarios. This is based on changes in the demographic structure and, in the short term, additional demand from refugees from Ukraine.

empirica Housing Market Forecast 2023/2024 - Three Scenarios in Comparison

Studies for download

Detailed results and further information on the methodology can be found in two current publications on the forecasts, which are available for download on the empirica ag website (both in German):

  • Jan Grade (2023): empirica Bevölkerungsprognose 2023. Regionalisierte Prognose in drei Varianten bis 2035 und Zusatzprognose der Geflüchteten aus der Ukraine.
    Download (extern): empirica-Paper Nr. 270. 
  • Dr. Reiner Brau, Jan Grade (2023): Wohnungsmarktprognose 2023. Regionalisierte Prognose in drei Varianten mit Ausblick bis 2035.
    Download (extern): empirica-Paper Nr. 271 
forecast demography housing market 2023
Significant decline in vacant flats

Significant decline in vacant flats

The annual update of the CBRE-empirica vacancy index is available and shows a significant decline in vacancies in the housing stock in 2022. The vacancy rate nationwide is now only 2.5 %. That is around 554 thousand residential units and therefore 53 thousand fewer vacant flats than in 2021. This is the biggest decline in a single year since the time series began over 20 years ago.
Housing bubble index Q3/2023: Fewer and fewer regions at risk

Housing bubble index Q3/2023: Fewer and fewer regions at risk

The empirica housing bubble index indicates that the risk of a housing market bubble in Germany is decreasing. In recent quarters, there has been a change: there are fewer and fewer vulnerable districts. The danger is still there, but its extent is getting smaller. The number of endangered regions has been falling for three quarters in a row.
Housing market data Q3/2023: How long do prices typically fall?

Housing market data Q3/2023: How long do prices typically fall?

The empirica housing price index continues to show a trend of declining purchase prices for condominiums and single- or two-family houses, while the indices for rental apartments continue to rise. For newly built condominiums, the indices stabilize with an increase of 0.2% compared to the previous quarter. In contrast, the indices for newly built detached and semi-detached houses continue to decline (-0.9%). The increase in newly built rental apartments amounts to 1.2% this quarter.