The 2022 census - back to square one?

On 25 June 2024, the first results of the 2022 census were published by the Federal Statistical Office. The empirica regio team has also been waiting for these results, as the census will put many important official statistics on a new footing. In this article, we would like to briefly explain what this means for the empirica regional database.

The 2022 census was a statistical survey conducted in Germany to obtain up-to-date and accurate data on the population, housing and social conditions in the federal state. This information is of great importance for various purposes, both for authorities and for companies.

However, this also means that official statistics on the population and housing stock will in future be updated on the basis of the 2022 census and not on the basis of the 2011 census, as was previously the case. The 2022 census has revealed that Germany’s population is around 1.4 million lower than assumed in the previous population update. As a result, the population figures in many municipalities and federal states will have to be revised downwards. The previous projections, which were based on the population update of the 2011 census, are therefore no longer correct and must be corrected.

Consequences for the empirica regional database

As a result, many of the indicators contained in the empirica regional database need to be adjusted. It is important that consistent time series are available as a result, which, for example, allow statements to be made on relative population development over the entire period and are not distorted by jumps in the population statistics in 2011 or 2022. This applies equally to the statistics on the housing stock, even if the need for correction is very small here.

The Federal Statistical Office will carry out its own back-calculations between the 2011 and 2022 censuses and publish them in the coming months. However, not all population statistics will be revised in this way. This is why empirica regio is carrying out extensive model calculations in order to trace a comprehensible dynamic of the affected indicators for the period before the 2011 census and between the 2011 and 2022 censuses. The advantage for our customers is obvious: they receive consistent indicators that enable reliable statements to be made on the respective dynamics over time and in a regional comparison. In future, the data will therefore deviate from the old extrapolation results of the statistical offices and reflect the actual development between the 2011 and 2022 census instead of the “incorrectly” extrapolated official statistics.

In addition to housing stock and population, there are many other indicators for which empirica regio also uses data from the census or statistics based on it in its calculations, e.g. ownership rates, vacancy rates and the calculation of households. We subject this data to a comprehensive revision, taking into account the latest census data.

For us, after the census is before the census adjustment. This cannot be done overnight. The first publication of census data is only the first step in our data adjustment process. We will continue to work on our database over the coming weeks and months. We will regularly inform our customers about adjustments to the data basis. And we will also publish one or two updates here on our website.

Further information