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The new empirica housing market forecasts show the demographic trends in the German housing market until 2045. If immigration to Germany does not significantly decrease, then the population will continue to rise. The empirica demand forecast shows an annual new construction demand of around 170 thousand apartments for the period 2024-27. After that, demand decreases somewhat, but in the mid-2030s there will be a small demographic upheaval, causing demand from older households to rise again.

Net rents in major German cities (A-cities) are 70 per cent more expensive than 13 years ago. The rent burden for low-income households is 31 per cent across Germany. And: the development of rents is dependent on the development of incomes, particularly in the south. These are the key findings of a new study by economic and property data provider empirica regio GmbH. Our conclusion: The housing market is facing major challenges. The demand for new and affordable housing in Germany continues to grow. And: those who can, will stay in their own home.

The data from the empirica real estate price index for Q4/2024 is here. One of the results: The trend of rising rental prices continues. For new apartments, the rental prices have increased by 1.3% in the independent cities compared to the third quarter of 2023, and by 1.4% in the districts. The indices for rental apartments of all years of construction recorded an increase of 1.3%.

The annual update of the CBRE-empirica vacancy index is available and shows a significant decline in vacancies in the housing stock in 2022. The vacancy rate nationwide is now only 2.5 %. That is around 554 thousand residential units and therefore 53 thousand fewer vacant flats than in 2021. This is the biggest decline in a single year since the time series began over 20 years ago.

The empirica housing bubble index indicates that the risk of a housing market bubble in Germany is decreasing. In recent quarters, there has been a change: there are fewer and fewer vulnerable districts. The danger is still there, but its extent is getting smaller. The number of endangered regions has been falling for three quarters in a row.

The empirica housing price index continues to show a trend of declining purchase prices for condominiums and single- or two-family houses, while the indices for rental apartments continue to rise. For newly built condominiums, the indices stabilize with an increase of 0.2% compared to the previous quarter. In contrast, the indices for newly built detached and semi-detached houses continue to decline (-0.9%). The increase in newly built rental apartments amounts to 1.2% this quarter.